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We have all heard the adage, "The only constant in life is change." (Heraclitus, Greek philosopher, ~500 BC.) And while many of us have a love-hate relationship with change, by the time we read this article, there will have been even more change!

Let’s weave into this above fact another reality - most decisions are emotionally based. And what do we then get? A very complicated BAS job market.

To unravel some of the complexity, let’s look at some data.

We have been collecting the number of weekly open BAS jobs data from the American Controls Professionals for 1-year.

The # of open BAS jobs each week started trending down the week ending 03.28.20.

It now appears that the number of BAS jobs open at the end of each week (reported on Saturday) is leveling out at approximately 11,000.

This chart suggests we will have a U-shaped recovery in the number of weekly open BAS jobs.

This next chart shows us the actual weekly increase or decrease in the number of open BAS jobs as compared to the previous week.

The total # of open BAS jobs posted each week has declined by 7,276 jobs (20,124 open jobs on 03.14.20 to 11,087 open jobs on 06.20.20.) This is a decrease of 42% (compared to Indeed.com’s decrease of 34% for its total # of open jobs for the same time period.)

Currently, there are 11,087 open BAS jobs. And that is only counting the posted ones. So, even though the total number of open jobs is cut by 42%, there are still eleven thousand openings! That’s a lot.

So, by no stretch of the imagination is it all “gloom and doom.”

Our industry is busy, and it is going to get busier with more buildings needing to install remote access, upgrade controls, improve ventilation, install UV for disinfection, improve data analytics, and so much more.

Example:

I'll provide one example. Four people from a particular OEM contacted me in the first week of June. They had all been laid off. By June 19th, 2 had job offers. As of this writing, the third has a final interview the week of June 22nd, and the fourth has a final interview the week of June 30th.

There is a demand for controls talent.

So, where does the fear come in that I mention at the beginning of this article? It’s in the form of inaction due to uncertainty. Change has one frozen

I first heard this idea from Jim Koch, the co-founder of Boston Beer (Sam Adams beer).

And while the candidates I refer to in the above paragraph were all laid off, controls talent that is still gainfully employed is more frozen than ever.

Changing jobs is always scary. In fact, even one of the laid-off professionals mentioned above is scared about starting his new job. I asked him, "Do you have any concerns?" His response was, "It's been a long time since I have started a new job. What if I don't make a good first impression?"

So, passive talent, the talent that is gainfully employed and not looking for a new job, is not only "scared,” but changing jobs could be perceived as “dangerous.” Dangerous to their family and dangerous to their career. They are thinking, "What if I change jobs and there is another shut down in the economy?” Often the last hired is the first fired (or laid off.) Then, they have put their family at risk because they don't have income or benefits.

As the laid-off talent is hired, it could become harder than before the “Covid recession” to hire people.

That's why, if you see your business growing, now might be the time to hire. Build back to be ready for the bounce back.

And if you are an employee, have the conversation if you are invited into it. Having a conversation is "not scary" and “not dangerous.” And even if it is "scary," it is still "not dangerous.”

This is truly a time to be (cautiously) optimistic

As a recruiting firm, we subscribe to ITR Economics. They are an economic research firm with a 94.7% forward-looking forecast accuracy rate over the past 40 years.

Their forecast is based on 12 economic leading indicators (shown below.) Whatever the trends are, when at least five change direction, the forecast has a 94.7% accuracy rate. After April, all 12 of the economic indicators were red (in decline.) Six have now changed direction to “rise.”

U.S. Economic Leading Indicators

On July 15, ITR Economics updated its mid-year forecast. Mr. Alan Beaulieu, ITR’s President, states, “ITR is projecting that the low point for this recession will be the second quarter of 2020, IF key states remain (mostly) open. It is impossible to discern what the governors of our largest states will do, but a near-complete shutdown of CA, TX, FL, NY, and PA would result in a downward revision to the forecast. As of this writing, There have been some partial rollbacks in the extent of some state openings, but no large shut down of state economies. Absent a devastating second wave, we are projecting that GDP will stabilize or move slightly higher in the third quarter followed by a rise in the last quarter of the year.”

If your BAS market is growing, now is the time to take the risk and hire the talent you need. Waiting has the probability of creating greater risk.

And if you have thought about changing jobs, at least entertain the conversation. That costs nothing and could benefit you greatly.

Skip Freeman is a Senior Technical Recruiter (Headhunter) at Building Automation & Smart Industry Solutions (BASI Solutions.)

As a graduate of the United States Military Academy at West Point with a BSME, Skip served 10-years in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers before serving in Field Sales & Leadership roles in specialty chemicals, water treatment, HVAC, and industrial equipment.

Today, as a recruiter with BASI Solutions, Skip focuses on helping companies hire the best & helping the best get hired in:

Connect with Skip and follow us at BASI Solutions to stay up-to-date on the latest jobs, career advice, and insight into employment and talent within the world of Building Automation.

Skip Freeman is a Senior Technical Recruiter (Headhunter) at Building Automation & Smart Industry Solutions (BASI Solutions.)

Today, as a recruiter with BASI Solutions, Skip focuses on helping companies hire the best & helping the best get hired in:

Connect with Skip and follow us at BASI Solutions to stay up-to-date on the latest jobs, career advice, and insight into employment and talent within the world of Building Automation.

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